Jim and I use this chart in client meetings to provide perspective on the market:
You'll notice the recent ten-year period from March 2009-March 2019 looks very different than that from March 1999-March 2009, when the S&P 500 declined to a low of 677.
Although this ten-year bull market is one of the longest ever, we do not believe it's over.
So far this year the market has staged an impressive rally after nearly entering a bear market on December 24, with U.S. stocks notching their best start to any year since 1991. Stocks have climbed the “wall of worry” once again, although global uncertainty persists.
While the road to new market highs could get bumpy as investors deal with Brexit and China trade concerns, we encourage our clients to focus on the fundamentals supporting economic growth and corporate profitability in 2019. Although recession calls have become louder over the past several months, we don’t believe we will see one this year. Building on my last Thoughts on The Market post from December, we continue to foresee a low probability of recession this year given low inflation, very low unemployment, high corporate earnings, and an accommodating Federal Reserve.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished positive in both January and February only 27 times. In 25 of those 27 years, the remaining 10 months of the year have resulted in further increases. That doesn’t provide guarantees for 2019; however seasonality and momentum may be on our side.
Questions or comments? Give us a call - We would love to hear your Thoughts on The Market!
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.